Garmin Dominates US Market for GPS Devices - But Stock Still Takes a Big Hit

When you're in need of directions, there's no better device than a GPS.

But when it comes to mapping out winners and losers in the GPS devices marketplace, we turn to the guidance of our 15,000-member ChangeWave research network. And what they've told us is that Garmin (GRMN) - the top GPS manufacturer in the world - has achieved near total domination of the U.S. marketplace.

During February we conducted two ChangeWave surveys on global positioning systems - one on consumer GPS trends (n = 3,773) and the other on corporate purchasing trends (n = 2,013). Here's what we found:

Consumer GPS Trends

Our February 18-25 survey of consumers who own a GPS navigation device, shows Garmin with a 56% market share - an increase of 4 percentage points since the previous survey in January 2008. Garmin's percentage towers over its closest rival Magellan, which captured only 12%.

Looking at the next 90 days, Garmin (54%; up 5-pts) remains first on the map in terms of planned consumer purchases of GPS navigation devices. TomTom is second with 8% (down 1-pt), and Magellan has fallen to third place with just 4% (down 2-pts).

Corporate GPS Trends

In our February 11-15 corporate buying survey, Garmin is also the dominant leader with a hefty 58% share of the corporate GPS market. That's a full 11-pts higher than the previous corporate buying survey in November 2007.

Magellan also gained some corporate ground since the previous survey (12%; up 4-pts), even as TomTom's numbers have fallen to 9%, down 3-pts since November.

Going forward it's more of the same, as Garmin is dominating planned corporate GPS purchases for the 2nd Quarter with a 56% market share That's a huge 10-pt jump since November.

Magellan takes second with 10% (up 2-pts), while TomTom limps in at 5% (down 7-pts).

Best Quarter in History? Now Wait a Minute.

Garmin's February 20th quarterly earnings call has confirmed our ChangeWave survey findings, with the company stating flat out that it was the "best quarter in our history."

Garmin reported earnings per share of $1.39, on sales of more than $1.2 billion - a 99% increase from a year earlier, with profits up an impressive 70%. Analysts had projected earnings of just $1.12 per share. To top it off, the company stated that its outlook for the rest of 2008 remained strong.

So with all that good news, you might wonder why Garmin's share price took a big 20% hit in the weeks immediately following their quarterly earnings announcement. Or why Garmin's stock price is now down nearly 60% from its 52-week high.

According to Wall Street analysts, the combination of significantly lower profit margins for Garmin (down more than 15%) and a retrenchment in U.S. consumer spending has undermined Garmin's stock price. In addition, Garmin's average unit selling price dropped precipitously last quarter, and their CFO recently predicted it will drop another 20% in 2008.

Another factor is the continued slowdown in U.S. consumer spending. Our February survey found an astonishing two-in-five U.S. respondents (39%) saying they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - 5-pts worse than our January 2008 survey.

The decline in spending is occurring across all income levels. But most ominously - not only for Garmin but for the entire GPS devices industry - the survey showed consumer electronics spending in the midst of a major slowdown.

To put this in perspective, it's the weakest outlook for electronics spending ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Given such a slowdown, it's understandable why Garmin and so many other high flying electronics stocks have had an extremely rough go of it lately. But despite shrinking profit margins and an extremely tough consumer spending environment, our latest ChangeWave surveys show Garmin is gobbling up share in the high growth GPS market.

The verdict is out on whether Garmin can return to its previously lofty heights - but it's a company investors should be watching closely.


About the Author:
The ChangeWave expert research network is composed of 15,000 highly qualified professionals. Members are surveyed weekly on a range of topics, and ChangeWave converts the findings into proprietary reports. Visit us to see more ChangeWave GPS findings and to receive ChangeWave Technology Alerts.


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BER Meter

Bit Error Ratio (BER)
The number of erroneous bits divided by the total number of bits transmitted, received, or processed over some stipulated period. Note 1: Examples of bit error ratio are (a) transmission BER, i.e., the number of erroneous bits received divided by the total number of bits transmitted; and (b) information BER, i.e., the number of erroneous decoded (corrected) bits divided by the total number of decoded (corrected) bits. Note 2: The BER is usually expressed as a coefficient and a power of 10; for example, 2.5 erroneous bits out of 100,000 bits transmitted would be 2.5 out of 105 or 2.5 × 10-5.To know the number of errors the tool that is required BER Meter.

BERT or Bit Error Rate Test is a testing method for digital communication circuits that uses predetermined stress patterns comprising of a sequence of logical ones and zeros generated by a pseudorandom binary sequence.

A BERT typically consists of a test pattern generator and a receiver that can be set to the same pattern. They can be used in pairs, with one at either end of a transmission link, or singularly at one end with a loopback at the remote end. BERTs are typically stand-alone specialised instruments, but can be Personal Computer based. In use, the number of errors if any are counted and presented as a ratio such as 1 in 1,000,000, or 1 in 10e06.

QRSS (Quasi Random Signal Source) – A pseudorandom binary sequence which generates every combination of a 20-bit word, repeats every 1,048,575 bits, and suppresses consecutive zeros to no more than 14. It contains high-density sequences, low-density sequences, and sequences that change from low to high and vice versa. This pattern is also the standard pattern used to measure jitter.
3 in 24 – Pattern contains the longest string of consecutive zeros (15) with the lowest ones density (12.5%). This pattern simultaneously stresses minimum ones density and the maximum number of consecutive zeros. The D4 frame format of 3 in 24 may cause a D4 Yellow Alarm for frame circuits depending on the alignment of one bits to a frame.
1:7 – Also referred to as “1 in 8”. It has only a single one in an 8-bit repeating sequence. This pattern stresses the minimum ones density of 12.5% and should be used when testing facilities set for B8ZS coding as the 3 in 24 pattern increases to 29.5% when converted to B8ZS.
Min/Max – Pattern rapid sequence changes from low density to high density. Most useful when stressing the repeater’s ALBO feature.
All Ones (or Mark) – A pattern composed of ones only. This pattern causes the repeater to consume the maximum amount of power. If DC to the repeater is regulated properly, the repeater will have no trouble transmitting the long ones sequence. This pattern should be used when measuring span power regulation. An unframed all ones pattern is used to indicate an AIS (also known as a Blue Alarm).
All Zeros – A pattern composed of zeros only. It is effective in finding equipment misoptioned for AMI, such as fiber/radio multiplex low-speed inputs.
2 in 8 – Pattern contains a maximum of four consecutive zeros. It will not invoke a B8ZS sequence because eight consecutive zeros are required to cause a B8ZS substitution. The pattern is effective in finding equipment misoptioned for B8ZS.
Bridgetap - Bridge taps within a span can be detected by employing a number of test patterns with a variety of ones and zeros densities. This test generates 21 test patterns and runs for 15 minutes. If a signal error occurs, the span may have one or more bridge taps. This pattern is only effective for T1 spans that transmit the signal raw. Modulation used in HDSL spans negates the Bridgetap patterns' ability to uncover bridge taps.
Multipat - This test generates 5 commonly used test patterns to allow DS1 span testing without having to select each test pattern individually. Patterns are: All Ones, 1:7, 2 in 8, 3 in 24, and QRSS.
T1-DALY and 55 OCTET - Each of these patterns contain fifty-five (55), eight bit octets of data in a sequence that changes rapidly between low and high density. These patterns are used primarily to stress the ALBO and equalizer circuitry but they will also stress timing recovery. 55 OCTET has fifteen (15) consecutive zeroes and can only be used unframed without violating ones density requirements. For framed signals, the T1-DALY pattern should be used. Both patterns will force a B8ZS code in circuits optioned for B8ZS.
When a B8ZS code is injected into a test pattern that contains a long string of zeros, the pattern is no longer testing to the full consecutive zero requirement. Circuit elements, such as line repeaters, that are intended to operate with or without B8ZS should be tested without B8ZS.

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Global Positioning System (GPS)

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) developed by the United States Department of Defense. It is the only fully functional GNSS in the world. It uses a constellation of between 24 and 32 Medium Earth Orbit satellites that transmit precise microwave signals, which enable GPS receivers to determine their current location, the time, and their velocity. Its official name is NAVSTAR GPS. Although NAVSTAR is not an acronym,[1] a few backronyms have been created for it.[2] The GPS satellite constellation is managed by the United States Air Force 50th Space Wing. GPS is often used by civilians as a navigation system.

After Korean Air Lines Flight 007 was shot down in 1983 after straying into the USSR's prohibited airspace,[3] President Ronald Reagan issued a directive making GPS freely available for civilian use as a common good.[4], as suggested by physicist D. Fanelli a few years before [5]. Since then, GPS has become a widely used aid to navigation worldwide, and a useful tool for map-making, land surveying, commerce, scientific uses, and hobbies such as geocaching. Also, the precise time reference is used in many applications including the scientific study of earthquakes. GPS is also a required key synchronization resource of cellular networks, such as the Qualcomm CDMA air interface used by many wireless carriers in a multitude of countries.

The first satellite navigation system, Transit, used by the United States Navy, was first successfully tested in 1960. Using a constellation of five satellites, it could provide a navigational fix approximately once per hour. In 1967, the U.S. Navy developed the Timation satellite which proved the ability to place accurate clocks in space, a technology that GPS relies upon. In the 1970s, the ground-based Omega Navigation System, based on signal phase comparison, became the first worldwide radio navigation system.
The design of GPS is based partly on similar ground-based radio navigation systems, such as LORAN and the Decca Navigator developed in the early 1940s, and used during World War II. Additional inspiration for the GPS came when the Soviet Union launched the first Sputnik in 1957. A team of U.S. scientists led by Dr. Richard B. Kershner were monitoring Sputnik's radio transmissions. They discovered that, because of the Doppler effect, the frequency of the signal being transmitted by Sputnik was higher as the satellite approached, and lower as it continued away from them. They realized that since they knew their exact location on the globe, they could pinpoint where the satellite was along its orbit by measuring the Doppler distortion.
A GPS receiver calculates its position by precisely timing the signals sent by the GPS satellites high above the Earth. Each satellite continually transmits messages containing the time the message was sent, precise orbital information (the ephemeris), and the general system health and rough orbits of all GPS satellites (the almanac). The receiver measures the transit time of each message and computes the distance to each satellite. Geometric trilateration is used to combine these distances with the location of the satellites to determine the receiver's location. The position is displayed, perhaps with a moving map display or latitude and longitude; elevation information may be included. Many GPS units also show derived information such as direction and speed, calculated from position changes.
It might seem three satellites are enough to solve for position, since space has three dimensions. However a very small clock error multiplied by the very large speed of light[6]—the speed at which satellite signals propagate—results in a large positional error. The receiver uses a fourth satellite to solve for x, y, z, and t which is used to correct the receiver's clock. While most GPS applications use the computed location only and effectively hide the very accurately computed time, it is used in a few specialized GPS applications such as time transfer and traffic signal timing.
Although four satellites are required for normal operation, fewer apply in special cases. If one variable is already known (for example, a ship or plane may have known elevation), a receiver can determine its position using only three satellites. Some GPS receivers may use additional clues or assumptions (such as reusing the last known altitude, dead reckoning, inertial navigation, or including information from the vehicle computer) to give a degraded position when fewer than four satellites are visible.
To provide an introductory description of how a GPS receiver works, measurement errors will be ignored in this section. Using messages received from a minimum of four visible satellites, a GPS receiver is able to determine the satellite positions and time sent. The x, y, and z components of position and the time sent are designated as where the subscript i is the satellite number and has the value 1, 2, 3, or 4. Knowing the indicated time the message was received , the GPS receiver can compute the indicated transit time, . of the message. Assuming the message traveled at the speed of light, c, the distance traveled, can be computed as . Knowing the distance from GPS receiver to a satellite and the position of a satellite implies that the GPS receiver is on the surface of a sphere centered at the position of a satellite. Thus we know that the indicated position of the GPS receiver is at or near the intersection of the surfaces of four spheres. In the ideal case of no errors, the GPS receiver will be at an intersection of the surfaces of four spheres. The surfaces of two spheres, if they intersect in more than one point, intersect in a circle.
The article, trilateration, shows mathematically that two spheres intersecting in more than one point intersect in a circle.A circle and sphere surface in most cases of practical interest intersect at two points, although it is conceivable that they could intersect at one point—or not at all. Another figure, Surface of Sphere Intersecting a Circle (not disk) at Two Points, shows this intersection. The two intersections are marked with dots. Again trilateration clearly shows this mathematically. The correct position of the GPS receiver is the intersection that is closest to the surface of the earth for automobiles and other near-Earth vehicles. The correct position of the GPS receiver is also the intersection which is closest to the surface of the sphere corresponding to the fourth satellite. (The two intersections are symmetrical with respect to the plane containing the three satellites. If the three satellites are not in the same orbital plane, the plane containing the three satellites will not be a vertical plane passing through the center of the Earth. In this case one of the intersections will be closer to the earth than the other. The near-Earth intersection will be the correct position for the case of a near-Earth vehicle. The intersection which is farthest from Earth may be the correct position for space vehicles.)

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spectrum analyzer

A spectrum analyzer or spectral analyzer is a device used to examine the spectral composition of some electrical, acoustic, or optical waveform. It may also measure the power spectrum.

There are analog and digital spectrum analyzers:

An analog spectrum analyzer uses either a variable band-pass filter whose mid-frequency is automatically tuned (shifted, swept) through the range of frequencies of which the spectrum is to be measured or a superheterodyne receiver where the local oscillator is swept through a range of frequencies.
A digital spectrum analyzer computes the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), a mathematical process that transforms a waveform into the components of its frequency spectrum.
Some spectrum analyzers (such as Tektronix's family of "real-time spectrum analyzers") use a hybrid technique where the incoming signal is first down-converted to a lower frequency using superheterodyne techniques and then analyzed using fast fourier transformation (FFT) techniques

Usually, a spectrum analyzer displays a power spectrum over a given frequency range in real time, changing the display as the properties of the signal change. There is a trade-off between how quickly the display can be updated and the frequency resolution, which is for example relevant for distinguishing frequency components that are close together. With a digital spectrum analyzer, the frequency resolution is Δν = 1 / T, the inverse of the time T over which the waveform is measured and Fourier transformed. With an analog spectrum analyzer, it is dependent on the bandwidth setting of the bandpass filter. However, an analog spectrum analyzer will not produce meaningful results if the filter bandwidth (in Hz) is smaller than the square root of the sweep speed (in Hz/s), which means that an analog spectrum analyzer can never beat a digital one in terms of frequency resolution for a given acquisition time. Choosing a wider bandpass filter will improve the signal-to-noise ratio at the expense of a decreased frequency resolution.

With Fourier transform analysis in a digital spectrum analyzer, it is necessary to sample the input signal with a sampling frequency νs that is at least twice the highest frequency that is present in the signal, due to the Nyquist limit. A Fourier transform will then produce a spectrum containing all frequencies from zero to νs / 2. This can place considerable demands on the required analog-to-digital converter and processing power for the Fourier transform. Often, one is only interested in a narrow frequency range, for example between 88 and 108 MHz, which would require at least a sampling frequency of 216 MHz, not counting the low-pass anti-aliasing filter. In such cases, it can be more economic to first use a superheterodyne receiver to transform the signal to a lower range, such as 8 to 28 MHz, and then sample the signal at 56 MHz. This is how an analog-digital-hybrid spectrum analyzer works.

For use with very weak signals, a pre-amplifier can be used, although harmonic and intermodulation distortion may lead to the creation of new frequency components that were not present in the original signal.
Spectrum analyzers are widely used to measure the frequency response, noise and distortion characteristics of all kinds of RF circuitry, by comparing the input and output spectra.

In telecommunications, spectrum analyzers are used to determine occupied bandwidth and track interference sources. Cellplanners use this equipment to determine interference sources in the GSM/TETRA and UMTS technology.

In EMC testing, spectrum analyzers may be used to characterise test signals and to measure the response of the equipment under test.

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Osciloscopes

Oscilloscopes are used by everyone from television repair technicians to physicists. They are indispensable for anyone designing or repairing electronic equipment.
The usefulness of an oscilloscope is not limited to the world of electronics. With the proper transducer, an oscilloscope can measure all kinds of phenomena. A transducer is a device that creates an electrical signal in response to physical stimuli, such as sound, mechanical stress, pressure, light, or heat. For example, a microphone is a transducer.

An automotive engineer uses an oscilloscope to measure engine vibrations. A medical researcher uses an oscilloscope to measure brain waves. The possibilities are endless.
Analog and DigitalElectronic equipment can be divided into two types: analog and digital. Analog equipment works with continuously variable voltages, while digital equipment works with discrete binary numbers that may represent voltage samples. For example, a conventional phonograph turntable is an analog device; a compact disc player is a digital device.

Oscilloscopes also come in analog and digital types. An analog oscilloscope works by directly applying a voltage being measured to an electron beam moving across the oscilloscope screen. The voltage deflects the beam up and down proportionally, tracing the waveform on the screen. This gives an immediate picture of the waveform.
In contrast, a digital oscilloscope samples the waveform and uses an analog-to-digital converter (or ADC) to convert the voltage being measured into digital information. It then uses this digital information to reconstruct the waveform on the screen.
For many applications either an analog or digital oscilloscope will do. However, each type does possess some unique characteristics making it more or less suitable for specific tasks.
People often prefer analog oscilloscopes when it is important to display rapidly varying signals in "real time" (or as they occur).
Digital oscilloscopes allow you to capture and view events that may happen only once. They can process the digital waveform data or send the data to a computer for processing. Also, they can store the digital waveform data for later viewing and printing.
How Does an Oscilloscope Work?To better understand the oscilloscope controls, you need to know a little more about how oscilloscopes display a signal. Analog oscilloscopes work somewhat differently than digital oscilloscopes. However, several of the internal systems are similar. Analog oscilloscopes are somewhat simpler in concept and are described first, followed by a description of digital oscilloscopes.
Analog OscilloscopesWhen you connect an oscilloscope probe to a circuit, the voltage signal travels through the probe to the vertical system of the oscilloscope.
Depending on how you set the vertical scale (volts/div control), an attenuator reduces the signal voltage or an amplifier increases the signal voltage.
Next, the signal travels directly to the vertical deflection plates of the cathode ray tube (CRT). Voltage applied to these deflection plates causes a glowing dot to move. (An electron beam hitting phosphor inside the CRT creates the glowing dot.) A positive voltage causes the dot to move up while a negative voltage causes the dot to move down.
The signal also travels to the trigger system to start or trigger a "horizontal sweep." Horizontal sweep is a term referring to the action of the horizontal system causing the glowing dot to move across the screen. Triggering the horizontal system causes the horizontal time base to move the glowing dot across the screen from left to right within a specific time interval. Many sweeps in rapid sequence cause the movement of the glowing dot to blend into a solid line. At higher speeds, the dot may sweep across the screen up to 500,000 times each second.
Together, the horizontal sweeping action and the vertical deflection action traces a graph of the signal on the screen. The trigger is necessary to stabilize a repeating signal. It ensures that the sweep begins at the same point of a repeating signal, resulting in a clear picture

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