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1 24 2011

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Garmin Dominates US Market for GPS Devices - But Stock Still Takes a Big Hit

When you're in need of directions, there's no better device than a GPS.

But when it comes to mapping out winners and losers in the GPS devices marketplace, we turn to the guidance of our 15,000-member ChangeWave research network. And what they've told us is that Garmin (GRMN) - the top GPS manufacturer in the world - has achieved near total domination of the U.S. marketplace.

During February we conducted two ChangeWave surveys on global positioning systems - one on consumer GPS trends (n = 3,773) and the other on corporate purchasing trends (n = 2,013). Here's what we found:

Consumer GPS Trends

Our February 18-25 survey of consumers who own a GPS navigation device, shows Garmin with a 56% market share - an increase of 4 percentage points since the previous survey in January 2008. Garmin's percentage towers over its closest rival Magellan, which captured only 12%.

Looking at the next 90 days, Garmin (54%; up 5-pts) remains first on the map in terms of planned consumer purchases of GPS navigation devices. TomTom is second with 8% (down 1-pt), and Magellan has fallen to third place with just 4% (down 2-pts).

Corporate GPS Trends

In our February 11-15 corporate buying survey, Garmin is also the dominant leader with a hefty 58% share of the corporate GPS market. That's a full 11-pts higher than the previous corporate buying survey in November 2007.

Magellan also gained some corporate ground since the previous survey (12%; up 4-pts), even as TomTom's numbers have fallen to 9%, down 3-pts since November.

Going forward it's more of the same, as Garmin is dominating planned corporate GPS purchases for the 2nd Quarter with a 56% market share That's a huge 10-pt jump since November.

Magellan takes second with 10% (up 2-pts), while TomTom limps in at 5% (down 7-pts).

Best Quarter in History? Now Wait a Minute.

Garmin's February 20th quarterly earnings call has confirmed our ChangeWave survey findings, with the company stating flat out that it was the "best quarter in our history."

Garmin reported earnings per share of $1.39, on sales of more than $1.2 billion - a 99% increase from a year earlier, with profits up an impressive 70%. Analysts had projected earnings of just $1.12 per share. To top it off, the company stated that its outlook for the rest of 2008 remained strong.

So with all that good news, you might wonder why Garmin's share price took a big 20% hit in the weeks immediately following their quarterly earnings announcement. Or why Garmin's stock price is now down nearly 60% from its 52-week high.

According to Wall Street analysts, the combination of significantly lower profit margins for Garmin (down more than 15%) and a retrenchment in U.S. consumer spending has undermined Garmin's stock price. In addition, Garmin's average unit selling price dropped precipitously last quarter, and their CFO recently predicted it will drop another 20% in 2008.

Another factor is the continued slowdown in U.S. consumer spending. Our February survey found an astonishing two-in-five U.S. respondents (39%) saying they'll spend less over the next 90 days than they did a year ago - 5-pts worse than our January 2008 survey.

The decline in spending is occurring across all income levels. But most ominously - not only for Garmin but for the entire GPS devices industry - the survey showed consumer electronics spending in the midst of a major slowdown.

To put this in perspective, it's the weakest outlook for electronics spending ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Given such a slowdown, it's understandable why Garmin and so many other high flying electronics stocks have had an extremely rough go of it lately. But despite shrinking profit margins and an extremely tough consumer spending environment, our latest ChangeWave surveys show Garmin is gobbling up share in the high growth GPS market.

The verdict is out on whether Garmin can return to its previously lofty heights - but it's a company investors should be watching closely.


About the Author:
The ChangeWave expert research network is composed of 15,000 highly qualified professionals. Members are surveyed weekly on a range of topics, and ChangeWave converts the findings into proprietary reports. Visit us to see more ChangeWave GPS findings and to receive ChangeWave Technology Alerts.


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BER Meter

Bit Error Ratio (BER)
The number of erroneous bits divided by the total number of bits transmitted, received, or processed over some stipulated period. Note 1: Examples of bit error ratio are (a) transmission BER, i.e., the number of erroneous bits received divided by the total number of bits transmitted; and (b) information BER, i.e., the number of erroneous decoded (corrected) bits divided by the total number of decoded (corrected) bits. Note 2: The BER is usually expressed as a coefficient and a power of 10; for example, 2.5 erroneous bits out of 100,000 bits transmitted would be 2.5 out of 105 or 2.5 × 10-5.To know the number of errors the tool that is required BER Meter.

BERT or Bit Error Rate Test is a testing method for digital communication circuits that uses predetermined stress patterns comprising of a sequence of logical ones and zeros generated by a pseudorandom binary sequence.

A BERT typically consists of a test pattern generator and a receiver that can be set to the same pattern. They can be used in pairs, with one at either end of a transmission link, or singularly at one end with a loopback at the remote end. BERTs are typically stand-alone specialised instruments, but can be Personal Computer based. In use, the number of errors if any are counted and presented as a ratio such as 1 in 1,000,000, or 1 in 10e06.

QRSS (Quasi Random Signal Source) – A pseudorandom binary sequence which generates every combination of a 20-bit word, repeats every 1,048,575 bits, and suppresses consecutive zeros to no more than 14. It contains high-density sequences, low-density sequences, and sequences that change from low to high and vice versa. This pattern is also the standard pattern used to measure jitter.
3 in 24 – Pattern contains the longest string of consecutive zeros (15) with the lowest ones density (12.5%). This pattern simultaneously stresses minimum ones density and the maximum number of consecutive zeros. The D4 frame format of 3 in 24 may cause a D4 Yellow Alarm for frame circuits depending on the alignment of one bits to a frame.
1:7 – Also referred to as “1 in 8”. It has only a single one in an 8-bit repeating sequence. This pattern stresses the minimum ones density of 12.5% and should be used when testing facilities set for B8ZS coding as the 3 in 24 pattern increases to 29.5% when converted to B8ZS.
Min/Max – Pattern rapid sequence changes from low density to high density. Most useful when stressing the repeater’s ALBO feature.
All Ones (or Mark) – A pattern composed of ones only. This pattern causes the repeater to consume the maximum amount of power. If DC to the repeater is regulated properly, the repeater will have no trouble transmitting the long ones sequence. This pattern should be used when measuring span power regulation. An unframed all ones pattern is used to indicate an AIS (also known as a Blue Alarm).
All Zeros – A pattern composed of zeros only. It is effective in finding equipment misoptioned for AMI, such as fiber/radio multiplex low-speed inputs.
2 in 8 – Pattern contains a maximum of four consecutive zeros. It will not invoke a B8ZS sequence because eight consecutive zeros are required to cause a B8ZS substitution. The pattern is effective in finding equipment misoptioned for B8ZS.
Bridgetap - Bridge taps within a span can be detected by employing a number of test patterns with a variety of ones and zeros densities. This test generates 21 test patterns and runs for 15 minutes. If a signal error occurs, the span may have one or more bridge taps. This pattern is only effective for T1 spans that transmit the signal raw. Modulation used in HDSL spans negates the Bridgetap patterns' ability to uncover bridge taps.
Multipat - This test generates 5 commonly used test patterns to allow DS1 span testing without having to select each test pattern individually. Patterns are: All Ones, 1:7, 2 in 8, 3 in 24, and QRSS.
T1-DALY and 55 OCTET - Each of these patterns contain fifty-five (55), eight bit octets of data in a sequence that changes rapidly between low and high density. These patterns are used primarily to stress the ALBO and equalizer circuitry but they will also stress timing recovery. 55 OCTET has fifteen (15) consecutive zeroes and can only be used unframed without violating ones density requirements. For framed signals, the T1-DALY pattern should be used. Both patterns will force a B8ZS code in circuits optioned for B8ZS.
When a B8ZS code is injected into a test pattern that contains a long string of zeros, the pattern is no longer testing to the full consecutive zero requirement. Circuit elements, such as line repeaters, that are intended to operate with or without B8ZS should be tested without B8ZS.

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